霧峰追風者

  四級颶風  
編號：03 E
名稱：Bud

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 06 月 08 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 06 月 10 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 06 月 17 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥 下加利福尼亞半島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：115 kts
海平面最低氣壓：948 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92E-INVEST.20kts-1005mb-12.0N-97.0W

NHC : 70%

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become more
organized since yesterday with a better defined surface circulation.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive for development
by Saturday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

在加利福尼亞灣發出最後一報，逐漸消散。

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152035
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600
UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640
UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the
coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could
have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken
and then dissipate shortly after landfall.

ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a
bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate
355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through
dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching
longwave trough to the west.

Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant
rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
by your local weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

t02436

以35節強度擦過下加利福尼亞半島最南邊

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Bud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California
Peninsula.  There have been a few observations of tropical-storm-
force winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening.  Since that
time, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja
California Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In
addition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n
mi north of the center.  Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35
kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.

After moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has
made a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours.  This has
delayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening.
Track guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a
north-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center
across the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then
expected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then
north-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California
as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud
is then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of
Sonora by Friday evening.

The storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction
with Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf
of California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective
bands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the
Gulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm
status for a little longer.  By 24 hours, interaction with the
terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical
depression before landfall over Sonora.  Thereafter, the high
terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low
by 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.

Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture
plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into
northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and
Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash
flooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

t02436

也是大起大落的一隻，24小時前還有110節(Cat.3)，現在只剩55節(TS)
36小時後掃過下加利福尼亞半島，之後加速登陸墨西哥

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 131457
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Bud has continued to rapidly weaken due to significant upwelling of
colder water beneath the cyclone, resulting in a pronounced erosion
of the deep convection in the inner-core region. Sea-surface
temperature data from U-Miami RSMAS indicate that Bud has churned
up a cold wake that is least 3 deg C cooler than the surrounding
ocean temperatures. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on
average of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Bud has been wobbling slowly about a north-northwestward track of
about 340/04 kt for the past 12 h, and that is the motion used for
this advisory.  A deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern
United States that has been partly blocking Bud's poleward trek is
expected to slowly weaken and shift eastward during the next 72 h,
giving way to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The increasing
southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will
gradually induce a more northward component of motion by Thursday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday. No change
has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new
advisory is similar to the previous one and lies along the eastern
edge of the model guidance envelope.

Now that Bud has weakened to a tropical storm, significant upwelling
beneath the cyclone should abate somewhat. However, Bud will be
moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6-12 h, which will act to
keep the atmosphere only marginally conducive for the formation of
significant convection despite the vertical wind shear remaining
quite favorable at only around 5 kt. A gradual spin down of Bud's
circulation is expected until landfall occurs on southern Baja
California Sur, followed by more significant erosion of the wind
field on Friday due to cyclone interacting with the mountainous
terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
Decay-SHIPS intensity model, and is slightly below the intensity
consensus models. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is
still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern
Baja California Sur in 36-48 hours.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible
flash flooding across those areas.  For further information on the
heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local
weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 19.4N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

蜜露

巴德颶風達到了Cat.4  , 強度與上一個艾莉塔颶風差不多 .


今年東太開局兩號比西太強 , 東太的ACE也超過了西太.










現在巴德颶風強度正在走下坡了 , 預計影響南加州強度會在減弱 .

霧峰追風者

06Z強度升四級颶風，預測已經到達顛峰。

霧峰追風者

風眼清空，00Z強度來到110節。

TXPZ23 KNES 120023
TCSENP

A.  03E (BUD)

B.  12/0000Z

C.  17.5N

D.  107.2W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.5 MET=5.0 PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL
...FISHER

t02436

09Z評價90節，上望100節。

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud
seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has
recently become less distinct.  The intensity estimate of 90 kt is
based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT
estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher.  Bud should
remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today,
and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a
slow weakening trend thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is
a little above the latest model consensus.  Significantly cooler
waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce
Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land
area.

The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the
initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt.  A
weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States
is expected to persist for the next few days.  Bud is expected to
move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward
the north-northwest in 1-2 days.  Around that time, the steering
flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is
forecast to slow to 3-4 kt.  Later in the forecast period, the
ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little
faster toward the Baja peninsula.  The official forecast is
similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track
guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on
data from the latest ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

蜜露

颶風巴德 , 增強速度很快 .. 艾莉塔減弱後換巴德 , 底層看起來是完善的 .
GFS的上望和颶風艾莉塔巔峰差不多 .







環境可能贏過艾莉塔 .