周子堯@FB

  四級颶風  
編號：06 L
名稱：Florence

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 08 月 30 日 17 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 09 月 01 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 09 月 17 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：美國 北卡羅萊納州 賴茨維爾海灘

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：120 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：939 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90L-INVEST-20kts-1007mb-12.9N-17.0W


  NHC:60%  

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving off the coast ofSenegal are associated with a strong tropical wave and broad areaof low pressure.  A more well-defined low pressure system isforecast to form between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands latertoday after the tropical wave moves offshore over the far easternAtlantic Ocean, and the low is likely to become a tropicaldepression by the weekend while moving westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  This system is expected to bringheavy rains and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday andSaturday, and interests on the islands should monitor the progressof this disturbance.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

補充
NHC 09Z發出最後一報，15Z開始由WPC發報。

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Florence Discussion Number  68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Surface observations indicate that there are no longer any
sustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has
moved farther inland over South Carolina.  Therefore, the system is
being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time.  Maximum
winds are estimated to be 30 kt.  Continued gradual weakening is
likely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone
will be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or
so.  In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will
become an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to
baroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days.
This scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory.

The forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this
morning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt.  The high pressure
system that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is
predicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day
or so.  As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is
expected to move northwestward, northward, and then
north-northeastward around the periphery of the high.  Later in the
forecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar
to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Florence.  Future information on Florence can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH,
and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
early this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland.  In
addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also
possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central
Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 33.8N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  16/1800Z 34.7N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  17/0600Z 36.7N  83.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  17/1800Z 38.7N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  19/0600Z 42.0N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  20/0600Z 43.5N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

蜜露

佛羅倫斯颶風登陸時已經減弱為3級颶風
(巔峰的時候是4級颶風 實測是944hPa  評價是120Kts)

巔峰算是中度颱風上限的等級.

南、北卡羅萊納州還是造成強風豪雨.
多地淹水的災情

已經有11人死亡。

t02436

補充
中心已經在11Z登陸北卡

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
705 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...700 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

Buoy 41064, operated by the Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring
Program (CORMP), which is located about 50 miles east of the center
of Florence's eye, recently reported a wind gust to 112 mph (180
km/h).

A Weatherbug site located at Cape Fear Community College recently
reported a wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h), a report of a wind
gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) at the Wilmington Airport, and a NOAA
Ocean Service (NOS) observing site in Wrightsville Beach recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). The NOS site also recently reported a pressure of 959.2
mb.

The water levels in Pamlico Sound and Emerald Isle remain elevated.
These waters are expected to rise as the tides come back in.  A USGS
gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 6.1 feet
above normal water levels.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

登陸雷達動畫

t02436

持續上看125節，2天內在北卡及南卡交界登陸。

779
WTNT41 KNHC 121456
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating
Florence this morning has found no change in the hurricane's peak
intensity of 115 kt, even though the central pressure had decreased
a few millibars down to 943 mb. However, the aircraft data do
indicate that Florence's inner-core wind field has expanded, with
the 50-kt wind radii now extending outward up to 100 n mi to the
northeast. Florence still has a very distinct eye in satellite
imagery, but cloud top temperatures have been waxing and waning in
the eyewall region, with slight downward trend noted in the past
hour or so. In contrast, the upper-level outflow remains impressive
and continues to expand everywhere except to the south.

Florence is now moving toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. There has
been no significant change to the NHC model guidance, including the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are now virtually
on top of each other and the simple consensus model TVCA. As a
result, no changes were required to the previous NHC track. The
shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. On
the current forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to be
near the coasts of southern North Carolina and northern South
Carolina in 48 to 72 hours and then drift westward to west-
southwestward in weak steering flow.

There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to
strengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and
highest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest
between 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow morning. After that, decreasing ocean
heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should
cause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which
should induce a gradual weakening trend. Once Florence reaches the
shallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more
significant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening
process. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher
statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the
decay SHIPS model after that time.

While Florence's maximum winds are expected to weaken a little, it
is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it
approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas late this
week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as
it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 29.8N  71.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 31.1N  73.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 32.6N  75.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 33.5N  76.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 33.8N  77.4W  105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H  15/1200Z 33.6N  78.4W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H  16/1200Z 33.6N  80.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  17/1200Z 34.7N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

t02436

21Z評價120節，已經超越第一次巔峰的115節，上望135節。

366
WTNT41 KNHC 102055
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours.  Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles.  While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats.  The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11
kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over
the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean.  By late Wednesday, a turn toward the
northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge,
along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building
over the Great Lakes.  There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States.  Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall.  The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus.  It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra
data for the numerical models.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 25.4N  61.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  12/0600Z 28.6N  69.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  14/1800Z 35.6N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1800Z 36.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

蜜露

西北太平洋有27W和山竹接近亞洲，中國、台灣和菲律賓警戒。


北大西洋這裡弗羅洛絲和艾薩克也正在威脅美洲國家，弗羅洛絲正逼近美國東部。




弗羅洛絲的條件或許沒有山竹優秀。
但是這風切目前還沒有直接對弗羅洛絲造成正面傷害。


率先取得了Cat.4


未來限制了環境發展，最強應該就是維持Cat.4
緯度比較高，沒有經過高潛熱。

t02436

風眼開啟，15Z重新回到MH，將持續增強，36小時之後達到巔峰。

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane.  Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.

The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow.  The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time.  As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats.  The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt.  The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days.  By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes.  The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles.  Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance.  It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 25.0N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 25.5N  61.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 26.4N  64.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 27.8N  67.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 29.5N  71.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
72H  13/1200Z 33.0N  76.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
96H  14/1200Z 35.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1200Z 36.0N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

霧峰追風者

強度重回一級颶風，巔峰上望130節，4天後直襲美東，另外美國已經要啟動飛機實測。

270
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
convection near the center.  Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
this advisory.

Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were
still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to
mix into the core.  This structure has potentially kept Florence
from intensifying rapidly so far.  It is likely, however, that the
eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,
resulting in a faster intensification rate.  The guidance is
remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing
category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the
current intensity.  The new forecast continues to show rapid
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models.  It is worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained
much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.
There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days.  This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a
much faster forward speed by Tuesday.  On Wednesday, the hurricane
will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another
ridge forming over the Ohio Valley.   The most notable change from
the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a
faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk
of a destructive hurricane landfall.  The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week.  These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 24.4N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 24.6N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 25.1N  60.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 25.9N  63.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  12/1800Z 30.3N  72.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
96H  13/1800Z 33.5N  77.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake