2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little
better organized this morning. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend,
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Remnants Of Gonzalo Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020
Gonzalo's structure has degraded further since the last advisory.
Late-arriving ASCAT data showed a well-defined tropical wave with
winds around 30 kt, but no clear evidence of a closed circulation.
Grenada reported max winds of 28 kt with a gust to 40 kt, in line
with the ASCAT observations, while multiple observing stations in
Trinidad did not report any westerly winds as the system passed.
There has been no evidence of a well-defined center in visible
imagery since that time. Given the additional degradation of
Gonzalo's appearance since it moved closest to those islands, it
appears that the system has opened into wave and dissipated.
Therefore, this will be the last advisory issued by the National
Hurricane Center.
Tropical squalls associated with the remnants of Gonzalo will
continue to move westward for the next day or so and could bring
gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the southeastern
Caribbean. Please consult products from your national meteorological
service for information specific to your area.
Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.
SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WTNT21 KNGU 211400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 39.2W TO 9.8N 43.3W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
39.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANYTIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 8 TO 12 KT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221400Z.
//
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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