94W 登陸海南如夢一場

krichard2011 · 2013-7-17 09:10

94W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.12N.112.6E

開梅 · 2013-7-21 00:17

氣象局這次可是跌破眼鏡,平常他們都有所保留不大像早期一樣會說這個系統未來是否能發展為颱風,這次說的信誓旦旦,照理應是有十成的把握,還是給懷具了:funk:

colinwoo · 2013-7-20 17:55

ivanhui 發表於 2013-7-20 11:23
各位有沒有察覺？南海生成的擾動、台風沒有一個可成氣候，就好像這個下場，何解？風切大強？內陸氣流，其他 ...

如果這次南海的風切不是太強，它應該能夠順利發展的。畢竟水氣支援充足和海温很高。

krichard2011 · 2013-7-20 14:59

NRL 已經沒有94W的資料了...
看樣子已經被97W所取代 = =

sh991016 · 2013-7-20 14:51

解除評價.........相信再不久就.......

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 111.8E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

justin8821 · 2013-7-20 14:50

94W撤編囉 NRL已經沒有他的資料
正式宣告死亡~~~

sh991016 · 2013-7-20 12:59

本帖最後由 sh991016 於 2013-7-20 13:01 編輯

評價降為Low......隨著越近陸地，發展起來的機會也越小了....而且圈圈那麼大，不知道是94w還是97w....

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 191355Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK DEEP CONVECTION WHILE HINTING AT LOW TO MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 191634Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DOES NOT RESOLVE THE LLCC IDENTIFIED IN THE EIR, BUT DOES REVEAL 10 TO 15 KNOT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.