WTPN21 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 132.3E TO 22.7N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
010530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
132.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 135.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY
755 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC)WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 010056Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM
WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. A
010057Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR
17N 124E AND ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT
POSITIONED NEAR GUAM. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30
TO 31C AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A QUICK NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020600Z.//
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