B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY
365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 022339Z ASCAT
PASS ALSO REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WEAK
WINDS OBSERVED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) EXTENDING 300 TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEYOND 36 HOURS,
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012358Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED,
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
