zjk369

預 料 現 時 位 於 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 低 壓 區 會 在 今 日 或 明 日 增 強 為 熱 帶 氣 旋 ， 並 在 下 週 初 移 向 呂 宋 海 峽 。 隨 後 其 移 動 路 徑 存 在 變 數 ， 有 可 能 進 入 南 海 北 部 及 在 下 週 初 至 中 期 為 廣 東 沿 岸 帶 來 大 雨 。

980256

假如96W到達南海，會不會北上，經過臺灣海峽到達東海或登入浙江。

ben811018

越來越有架勢了高層輻散通道打開
就差深層對流爆發然後鞏固大概就差不多了XD


這隻水氣豐沛
成形後環流會滿廣的
對台灣多少還是會有影響
多注意囉

t02436

JMA升格熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 128E WNW SLOWLY.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 129.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD BUT IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 281028Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SUITE SHOWS INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
AND CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, DECENT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT BROAD
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

GFS這報倒向EC  XD~

zjk369

明天預測有兩個熱帶低氣壓形成