蔡秉勳

目前高壓還有給06W點空間,而現階段導引氣流太不明顯,所以系統往西北甚至北北西慢慢加速中,
未來高壓強勢起來又多少被地形拉力影響,登陸呂宋島再繼續西進機會不小,但再北一點向EC預報那樣,暴風圈勾到距離岸邊100KM機率也是有的,就慢慢轉西是目前大趨勢囉,以目前數值預測來看,應該後續會把系統導引到港澳一代

強度預測方面啊,小J是滿樂觀,目前輻散和高層流出還不賴
<31日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 124度20分(124.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

黃偉立@FB

所以路徑還無法斷定??
一下說不會來台灣
一下說又恐接近台灣
到底什麼時候才能神斷?

t02436

JTWC 12Z升格06W，初報巔峰上望75節，預測擦過呂宋島北端之後將直襲珠三角。

Meow

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        2


1130Z向日葵8號雲圖

何金銀

Meow 發表於 2016-7-29 14:23
ECMWF首次預報3天後直襲台灣。

既使形成颱風
也有可能是雨量大於風力的情況
由於環流相當大
反而要注意受氣旋影響的週邊地區所造成的強降雨

blackcat

風場狹長 南側風力強
不努力點小心06碧利斯來抓交替

周子堯@FB

WTPN21 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 127.7E TO 15.9N 125.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY
765 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC).  A 282306Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BAND
OF HEAVY CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, WITH A
SMALLER AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD, INDICATIVE OF
THE DEEPENING LLCC. DESPITE THE HEAVY CONVECTION, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA DEPICT MOSTLY LIGHT (5-10 KNOT)
WINDS, WITH MSLP BETWEEN 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY
FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL BROAD AT THIS TIME, THE MSI IS
SHOWING SIGNS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING. THE
LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARD TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
MODEL INDICATED DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300130Z.
//
NNNN

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成28年07月29日16時30分 発表

<29日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 12度20分(12.3度)
東経 128度05分(128.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<30日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 13度20分(13.3度)
東経 127度00分(127.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<30日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度35分(14.6度)
東経 125度35分(125.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)