ben811018

ＥＣ　００Ｚ
誤差圈很大
信心度極低

周子堯@FB

JMA最新報.GEF.JTWC
熱帯低気圧
平成28年08月12日16時20分 発表
<12日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 16度55分(16.9度)
        東経 137度35分(137.6度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
<13日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 18度40分(18.7度)
        東経 140度25分(140.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

ben811018

熱帶性低氣壓９３Ｗ目前位於關島西方海域，
過去中心近似滯留，系統環流雖然相當廣泛，
但環流結構鬆散，型態稍差，仍需近一步整合。
至於未來移動方向，以目前資料研判，
短期內將沿著高壓邊緣朝東北移動，
後期是繼續北上還是西折，
這部分取決於高壓強弱及整個大低壓帶的發展，
變數非常高，仍有待觀察。

asus5635

發布TCFA~~

WTPN21 PGTW 112130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 138.1E TO 17.9N 141.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 138.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 138.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY
375NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111914Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT
CONSOLIDATED LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING, DECREASED YET
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION IN LIEU OF DIURNAL MAXIMUMS AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON A 111346Z RSCAT
PASS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OHC CONTENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST THE
MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122130Z.//

blackcat

JTWC:MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 138.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY
390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES DEPICT LOW AND MID-
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH INCREASED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
EVIDENT ON A 111346Z RSCAT PASS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
POINT SOURCE FIVE DEGREES WEST OF THE LLCC SUSTAINING THE CURRENT
CONVECTION, LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OHC CONTENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
NEAR THE MARIANAS THEN POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


還有EC12Z新報有點驚悚 時間還久別當真

陳約禮@FB

這個93W的對流相當猛烈，渦度也逐漸加深，稍早JMA已發布GW了
只是極向流出持續受日本南部的高空反氣旋壓抑，導致禿頭。


即使晚間對流持續爆發亦未能填補東北側空虛，中心似乎也裸露。


不過日本東南方的高空槽線預測將向西南伸展，甚至割離出一個冷低，屆時93W有機會位於它的東南側而改善極向流出。

小多啦

這是小程式今晚模擬的結果
16個Model裡面有9個model往巴士海峽前進 7個北轉
小程式預測93W的巔峰強度約為63KTS
每個Model詳細的路徑及強度預測如最下面的附件(TXT文字檔)

ben811018

這隻不好報
GFS.EC一直抽(00Z這報難得有共識)
-
西太大亂鬥
換日線附近又有系統要進來湊熱鬧XD