(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3N
129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSATING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT ON MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA IS 30C. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BASED ON ALL
AVAILABLE DATA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
