(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 146.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 410
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AROUND IT. A 030912Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
INCREASED CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AS INDICATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SYSTEMS MOVEMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND
STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 146.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD TURNING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER IT. A 030017Z AMSU-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE BROAD, ELONGATED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 5-10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE BROAD LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.2N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL POSITIVE CURVATURE
VORTICITY. A 020415Z SSMI 85GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN AND
SPOTTY CONVECTION. NO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
APPARENT YET, BUT SOME CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS IS
EVIDENT. A 011206Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
