blackcat

看窩度的話可以理解為何發GW
型態的話就不吐槽了..

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成28年10月04日16時20分 発表

<04日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
東経 177度35分(177.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<05日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 175度50分(175.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<05日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 17度30分(17.5度)
東経 173度55分(173.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

kibishi0515

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5N 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 032120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY WEAK WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A 031918Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JTWC: LOW
    LLCC已建立、另外此擾動具有北強南弱的東風波性質。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 032120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
VERY WEAK WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A 031918Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER,
THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

kibishi0515

JMA:TD
WARNING.

t02436

CPHC認為已經進入西太，所以將發展機率歸零。

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area
of low pressure located around 1550 miles west-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii has moved west of 180W and out of the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility. The
disturbance is expected to move north-northwest and remain west of
180w. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not expected east
of 180W.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent

從可見光雲圖來看中心的確已經跑到178.5E的位置了

kibishi0515

中心似乎已越過國際換日線。
是說中太擾動在西太升熱低是用W作結尾嗎？

kibishi0515

GFS預測94C會跑到西太平洋 可能會和99W競爭艾利這個名字