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02W 穿越菲中群島 中心裸露北上通過巴士海峽

簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

2017-4-9 11:51 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:02 W
名稱:
02W_TD.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 09 11
升格熱低日期:2017 04 14 15
撤編日期  :2017 04 21 07
登陸地點  :菲律賓 薩馬島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):25 kts
海平面最低氣壓: 1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-2.0N-153.0E

20170409.0220.himawari8.x.vis2km.92WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-20N-1530E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 補加分

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簽到天數: 1863 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-4-20 09:59 | 顯示全部樓層
20170420.0050.himawari-8.vis.02W.TWO.20kts.1007mb.20.7N.120.9E.100pc.jpg vis-animated.gif


正在通過巴士海峽
LLCC依然明顯
但對流相當稀疏..
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-19 16:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 評級提升"MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A
MOISTENING PHASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
SITTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD, THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW (24 HRS) FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (2).jpg


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簽到天數: 1863 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-4-19 10:41 | 顯示全部樓層

himawari-8_band_03_sector_03.gif

CWB已降為普通低壓
目前來到呂宋島西方海域
持續偏北進行,未來一兩天通過巴士海峽
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簽到天數: 2960 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-4-18 17:04 | 顯示全部樓層
20170418.0713.f16.x.vis1km.02WTWO.20kts-1007mb-159N-1170E.100pc.jpg s1p-2017-04-18-16-20.jpg

中心附近只剩下一小塊對流

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簽到天數: 2423 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-4-18 13:21 | 顯示全部樓層
CMA 00Z編號TD01
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01 INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 15.5N 117.0E 1006HPA 13M/S
MOVE N 10KM/H
P+12HR 16.4N 117.2E 1006HPA 13M/S
P+24HR 17.7N 117.3E 1007HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20170418110000000.jpg

LATEST.jpg
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簽到天數: 1863 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-4-18 10:39 | 顯示全部樓層
5151.PNG

裸的真徹底XD
記錄一下囉~
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簽到天數: 2423 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-4-18 09:26 | 顯示全部樓層
中心裸了,但JTWC重評Low,JMA持續維持TD。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.

17041806.png

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 02W) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 14.9N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARED
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WANE WITH MOSTLY MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION NOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, A 171352Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A COMPACT CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
REMAINS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTEROMETRY, CURVED
BANDING IN A 171350Z AMSU 89 GZ IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH TO THE NORTH AND DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS
FURTHER DISSIPATE THESE REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

20170418.0030.himawari-8.vis.02W.TWO.20kts.1007mb.15N.116.9E.100pc.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

02W_gefs_latest.png
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