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WTPN21 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 134.5E TO 11.1N 126.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CORE CONVECTION. A 13/0700Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHERLY, INDICATIVE OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CIRCULATION, AND
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 0.5MB.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT (GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT) AND SHOW A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141000Z.//
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