jwpk9899

過去一段時間對流一直無法鞏固 發展不順利
JTWC直接取消評級
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 141.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

W環

JTWC: Remains Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145
NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110034Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AS THE LLCC MOVED WESTWARD FROM UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AND
CONDUCIVE (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN 110036Z METOP-A 25KM
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ANALYZED, ALBEIT, THE SUBSIDED DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

W環

JTWC繼續發佈Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145
NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110034Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AS THE LLCC MOVED WESTWARD FROM UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AND
CONDUCIVE (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN 110036Z METOP-A 25KM
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ANALYZED, ALBEIT, THE SUBSIDED DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

ben811018

低層環流螺旋性有了
但還缺乏深層對流進一步鞏固




目前預報路徑往西修正
通過菲律賓呂宋島後北轉
只是對強度的看法就不太一致了～

W環

結構鬆鬆散散

jwpk9899

評級MEDUIM

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 092236Z GPM 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING A LOW
LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
100010Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
INFRARED DVORAK SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO
THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A
091512Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS)
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32C). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THIS CIRCULATION
IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.