開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

02W 穿越菲中群島 中心裸露北上通過巴士海峽

查看數: 9308 評論數: 35 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2017-4-9 11:51

正文摘要:

  熱帶低壓   編號:02 W 名稱:無 以上資料來自:JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

ben811018 發表於 2017-4-20 09:59
20170420.0050.himawari-8.vis.02W.TWO.20kts.1007mb.20.7N.120.9E.100pc.jpg vis-animated.gif


正在通過巴士海峽
LLCC依然明顯
但對流相當稀疏..
劉瑞益@FB 發表於 2017-4-19 16:55
JTWC 評級提升"MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A
MOISTENING PHASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
SITTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD, THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW (24 HRS) FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (2).jpg


ben811018 發表於 2017-4-19 10:41

himawari-8_band_03_sector_03.gif

CWB已降為普通低壓
目前來到呂宋島西方海域
持續偏北進行,未來一兩天通過巴士海峽
s6815711 發表於 2017-4-18 17:04
20170418.0713.f16.x.vis1km.02WTWO.20kts-1007mb-159N-1170E.100pc.jpg s1p-2017-04-18-16-20.jpg

中心附近只剩下一小塊對流

t02436 發表於 2017-4-18 13:21
CMA 00Z編號TD01
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01 INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 15.5N 117.0E 1006HPA 13M/S
MOVE N 10KM/H
P+12HR 16.4N 117.2E 1006HPA 13M/S
P+24HR 17.7N 117.3E 1007HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20170418110000000.jpg

LATEST.jpg
ben811018 發表於 2017-4-18 10:39
5151.PNG

裸的真徹底XD
記錄一下囉~
t02436 發表於 2017-4-18 09:26
中心裸了,但JTWC重評Low,JMA持續維持TD。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.

17041806.png

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 02W) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 14.9N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARED
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WANE WITH MOSTLY MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION NOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, A 171352Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A COMPACT CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
REMAINS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTEROMETRY, CURVED
BANDING IN A 171350Z AMSU 89 GZ IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH TO THE NORTH AND DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS
FURTHER DISSIPATE THESE REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

20170418.0030.himawari-8.vis.02W.TWO.20kts.1007mb.15N.116.9E.100pc.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

02W_gefs_latest.png

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表