B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9S
101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER AND WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 291835Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS ALSO POSITIONED
IN A NARROW AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST TO THE SOUTH IS CREATING A STEEP SHEAR GRADIENT
AND POTENTIALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER MODELS ARE
MIXED AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
