jwpk9899

各大機構都在動作囉
JTWC發出TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 118.2E TO 19.8N 116.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER. A 101029Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES C).
THERE ARE HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111500Z.//
NNNN

Alexchow

TCFA

ben811018

EC 10日00Z的系集~

asus5635

越南開始發報

TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Analysis positions and Intensities Local time (GMT+7) Date Position Classification Maximum sustained wind 13h Saturday, June 10, 2017 13 118 TD 46 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities Local time (GMT+7) Date Position Classification Maximum sustained wind 13h Sunday, June 11, 2017 16.1 116 TD 56 km/hour

asus5635

CWB升格TD

07fW011010
中央氣象局氣象報告
１０６年６月１０日１７時０分發布
６月１０日１４時天氣概況：

　　一、天氣特報：
　　請參照本局發布之最新豪(大)雨特報。

　　二、高氣壓１０１４百帕，在北緯２３度，東經１３８度
，即在日本南方海面，向東移動，時速１５公里。

　　三、熱帶性低氣壓１００４百帕，在北緯１３．５度，東
經１１８．５度，即在南沙島海面，向北北西緩慢移動。

　　四、明（１１）日臺灣各地及澎湖、金門、馬祖大多為多
雲到晴，白天氣溫偏高，僅東南部地區及恆春半島有局部短暫
陣雨，午後其他地區有局部短暫雷陣雨。金門及馬祖易有低雲
影響能見度，請注意。


　　五、海上強風特報：
１、臺灣北部海面平均風力可達６級，最大陣風８級，船隻請
注意。明（１１）日臺灣北部海面平均風力將稍減弱。明日臺
灣北部海面有風變，風向將由偏南風轉東北風，請注意。
２、熱帶性低氣壓影響，南沙島海面平均風力６至７級，雷雨
區最大陣風１０級；中西沙島海面平均風力可達６級，雷雨區
最大陣風９級，船隻請特別注意。明（１１日）上午起至晚間
東沙島海面及中西沙島海面平均風力將增強至６到７級，雷雨
區最大陣風１０級；巴士海峽平均風力將增強至６級，雷雨區
最大陣風９級，船隻請特別注意。明日南沙島海面平均風力將
稍減弱。
３、鋒面通過影響，今（１０日）晚起至明（１１日）上午間
，浙江海面及東海南部有明顯風變，風向將由偏南風轉偏北風
；浙江海面及東海南部平均風力可達６級，雷雨區最大陣風９
級，船隻請注意。明晨起花鳥山海面及東海北部平均風力將增
強至６級，雷雨區最大陣風８至９級，船隻請注意。明日浙江
海面及東海南部平均風力將稍減弱。

t02436

t02436 發表於 2017-6-10 15:56
CMA率先升格熱帶低壓，編號TD 02

JMA 06Z 升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 118E ALMOST STATIONARY.

t02436

CMA率先升格熱帶低壓，編號TD 02

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 100600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC
00HR 13.5N 118.7E 1006HPA 12M/S
MOVE NW 18KM/H
P+12HR 14.7N 117.3E 1002HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 16.5N 116.0E 998HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 18.8N 115.1E 998HPA 18M/S
P+48HR 20.8N 114.5E 995HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 22.6N 114.6E 998HPA 18M/S
P+72HR 24.1N 115.6E 1006HPA 14M/S=
NNNN

ben811018

擾動９６Ｗ目前已進入南海南部，
環流正在慢慢建立，
在西南季風水氣支援下，對流持續爆發中，
強度將逐漸增強，即將成為熱帶性低氣壓，
至於是否更進一步成為颱風，還有待觀察。
　
96W持續沿著太平洋高氣壓邊緣移動，
隨著高氣壓逐漸東退，將轉向偏北方向進行，
由於導引氣流相當穩定，移動速度快，
預計星期一到二之間就會進入香港、廣東一帶。
　
96W對台灣雖然不會有直接威脅，
但要注意的是，隨著他的北上，
外圍水氣在下周一就會順著西南風抵達台灣，
同時加上高氣壓減弱，台灣大氣環境轉為較不穩定，
南臺灣有短暫陣雨，其他地區午後陣雨也會變得明顯，
96W也將進一步帶動南海的西南季風發展，
豐沛水氣與鋒面結合下，
要特別注意強盛西南與鋒面帶來的強降雨威脅。