s6815711

評級於01Z提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 121.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY
125 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND RECENT 092212Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTED FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
(10-15 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH BUT IS GOOD ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT TURNS POLEWARD OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

W環

路徑較昨天東調了，未來副熱帶高壓脊情況是關鍵。

ben811018

【注意熱帶擾動９６Ｗ】
擾動９６Ｗ目前正在通過菲律賓中部群島，
未來幾天將逐漸北轉朝向廣東海域到東沙島海域一帶接近，
多個數值預報支持將有小幅發展的機會，
預計未來幾天將進一步增強為熱帶性低氣壓，
至於是否會成為第二號颱風，
仍要看他未來一兩天整理與發展的情況。

另外要注意的是，當這個低壓通過廣東海域後，
將進一步帶動南海的西南季風及支援豐沛水氣，
同時結合南下的鋒面，將為台灣帶來顯著降雨，
請密切注意這個低壓的發展。