簽到天數: 2103 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2017-7-28 06:23
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JTWC21z發布TCFA
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.1N 151.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A 271401Z AMSU 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A COINCIDENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A
BROAD SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM, AND WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AIDED BY
AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE
NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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