簽到天數: 4441 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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s6815711|2017-9-11 06:20
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19Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127E, APPROXIMATELY
349 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101328Z PARTIAL AMSU METOP-B IMAGE REVEAL
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 101329Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS INDICATES GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN BUILDING,
HOWEVER 101335Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD AND
ELONGATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS DECENT DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WITH FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND
SLOW CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM. 
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