B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7N 129.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES . ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100040Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SHALLOW DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 100041Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK,
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
