t02436

JTWC第三報不再預報被勾走，未來五天改以西北方向緩慢朝關島前進。

開梅

剛才看衛星雲圖，在蘭恩旁，它顯得很不起眼，但也沒有被吃掉，已有螺旋狀雲系愈來愈完整了

霧峰追風者

JTWC 率先升格TS，巔峰上望60Kts。

alu

升格為Ｗ２７

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z升格27W，環流袖珍，後期逐漸北上。

WTPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182021ZOCT2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 151.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 151.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 12.1N 151.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.8N 150.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 13.6N 148.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 14.9N 147.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.2N 144.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 30.6N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 151.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 182030).//
NNNN

typhoonhato1713

霧峰追風者 發表於 2017-10-19 06:01
JTWC 20Z發布TCFA。

會被蘭恩吃掉

霧峰追風者

JMA 15時升格熱帶低壓。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 20Z發布TCFA。

WTPN22 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 15.3N 149.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181536Z 89GHZ
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN
RECURVING, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
NNNN