開梅

都要靠近陸地了，氣象局還刻意在預報有強調『有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢』，往年在廣大洋面的條件更好的系統都不見得特別篤定加這句。

周子堯@FB

JTWC 21Z發布TCFA

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5N 121.4E, 860 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, CURRENTLY
TRANSITING WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND BROAD MIDLEVEL
TURNING. A 311317Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS ONE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO A CENTER, THOUGH DIFFERENTIATION OF
LOW LEVEL FEATURES IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS DIFFICULT DUE TO LAND
EMISSION FROM THE PHILIPPINES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 96W IS LOCATED IN AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT
28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DISTURBANCE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND REACH TS STRENGTH WITHIN SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH VARYING RATES OF DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 14Z評級提升至Medium(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY
243NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310937Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 311101Z PARTIAL
OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-30 KNOT CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREDICTING THE DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD AND AGGRESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JMA 發布GW，有機會明後天命名。

熱帯低気圧
平成29年10月31日16時30分 発表

<31日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 11度00分(11.0度)
東経 125度55分(125.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<01日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピン
予報円の中心        北緯 11度05分(11.1度)
東経 123度30分(123.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<01日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        スル海
予報円の中心        北緯 11度20分(11.3度)
東経 120度25分(120.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
9.5N 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.  A
RECENT 310033Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS 5-10 KNOT WINDS IN THE
CENTER,  STRONGER WINDS TO NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING
CONVECTION, AND OVERALL ELONGATED FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31C).  GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD AND LATER DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JMA 09時升格熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 127E WEST SLOWLY.

ken0121

預計往菲律賓方向

NET

出生在大型的LLCC(季風環流圈？)中...；需要大量水氣輻合，要整合起來困難度應該不小。