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1801 布拉萬 西太38年以來 最早生成命名颱風

簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-12-28 13:59 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-17 15:56 編輯

  輕度颱風  
編號:1801 ( 01 W )
名稱:布拉萬 ( Bolaven )
1801 AQUA.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 12 28 13
升格熱低日期:2017 12 30 15
命名日期  :2018 01 03 08
停編日期  :2018 01 04 08
登陸地點  :菲律賓 民答那峨省---熱帶低壓時期

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):30 kts ( TD )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:998 百帕
七級風半徑  :100 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  
2018.BOLAVEN.Track.png
  擾動編號資料  
99W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.2.7N.143.1E

20171228.0520.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.2.7N.143.1E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2017-12-30 07:10 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA已發佈LPA 2017123003.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-30 17:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-30 17:19 編輯

JMA 升格熱帶低壓,未來跨年系統。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 136E WEST SLOWLY.

17123015.png 20171230.0830.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.6N.136.1E.100pc.jpg 99W_gefs_latest.png

點評

預計平均強度50kts.990hpa及最高強度70kts.972hpa.  發表於 2017-12-30 22:47

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
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周子堯@FB|2017-12-31 09:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級為Low,有機會在元旦前後成颱
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1N
135.1E, APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301720Z 89GHZ SSMI F-15
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD AND UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DECENT DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. 99W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS) THAT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST, BUT ARE
SPLIT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW
      
abpwsair.jpg
99W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.3]偶爾看看II

ken0121|2017-12-31 10:24 | 顯示全部樓層

JTWC評級級Mudium

本帖最後由 ken0121 於 2017-12-31 10:26 編輯

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302303Z 89GHZ AMSU PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL FLOW. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST, BUT ARE INDECISIVE ON TIMING AND INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

丹尼兒|2018-1-1 21:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 丹尼兒 於 2018-1-1 21:26 編輯

熬了幾日 延續17年的風季系統 雖然無法正式成為跨年颱 但也即將成為18年的的第一號颱風

晚間八時 小j發布了GW 明一天即將成颱

此系統後續進入南海後 將牽扯台灣後半期的天氣
目前不少預測 本週後期布拉萬的水氣將有機會北上與北面系統影響台灣 造成全面性的降雨 不排除有強降雨的機會 可以關注下
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2018-1-1 21:49 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布GW

a-00.png


熱帯低気圧
平成30年01月01日21時50分 発表

<01日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置        北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 126度30分(126.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<02日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        スル海
予報円の中心        北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 122度50分(122.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<02日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        スル海
予報円の中心        北緯 9度05分(9.1度)
東経 118度30分(118.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-1-1 22:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-1-1 22:21 編輯

JTWC 發布TCFA,有機會成為首旋。
WTPN21 PGTW 011330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 127.8E TO 10.1N 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 011300Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 133.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 480
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RESURGENT DEEP CONVECTION COVERING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 011000Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES ORGANIZING BANDING AND DEEPER CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS
IMPROVED, SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINES IN THE NEXT DAY, THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. SOME MODELS PREDICT 99W CONTINUING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE OTHERS DEPICT A NORTHWARD TURN AT LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021330Z.
//
NNNN

wp9918.gif rgb-animated (6).gif


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