alu

升為MEDIUM


B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN. A 261127Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH BANDING AND CONVECTION PRESENT. A 261043Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND A WESTERLY WIND SURGE TO THE NORTH CREATING A REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), BUT HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM.//