今天裸得更徹底了～
快差不多囉！

風切很強
分離的也很徹底
能夠存活到現在實屬不易阿XD~

北方風切更猛...準備掰了

JMA 發布【W】

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 18.8N 147.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JTWC 12Z率先升格TS。

這隻高低層分離的好嚴重，不過還沒死。
從這點上來講它也蠻厲害的。

JTWC首報預測有機會在24小時內短暫升到TS，預測最高風速僅35kt(目前中心半裸)

  B. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. FROM TAU 36 TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW IN FORWARD TRANSLATION WHILE SLOWING TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY IN A WEAKLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSETTING HIGH VWS, PEAKING OUT AT 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WITH THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. AFTER TAU 36 POINT, VWS STRENGTHENS AND COMES TO DOMINATE THE OUTFLOW, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH HWRF BEING THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER, AND COTC BEING THE FAR POLEWARD OUTLIER. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG, WITH HWRF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE COAMPS MODELS AND DECAY SHIPS INDICATE A PEAK BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//NNNN

JTWC 00Z升格"04W"。