WTPN21 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 115.8E TO 12.6N 112.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 115.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KTS) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS.
SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT 99W WILL ASSUME A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NOW DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS,
WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING AND NOT DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020230Z.//
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