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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-6-2 09:20 編輯
JTWC 00Z評級提升Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 239
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012206Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SSTS EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES REMAIN (28-29C) SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OF
CONCERN. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE ON THE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN TRACK NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES BUT
DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM. 
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