霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級提升Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130049Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED JUST OFFSET OF
THE CENTER, TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE EAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL HAVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

ktf 發表於 2018-7-13 13:00
對數值來說難報了,兩系統距離近,掌握度會很低
會看到每報都在變,難有共識,只能整合成功或分家才會稍明朗
...

單從過去六小時及最新渦旋度來看，他們似乎真的想分家~

ktf

對數值來說難報了,兩系統距離近,掌握度會很低
會看到每報都在變,難有共識,只能整合成功或分家才會稍明朗

周子堯@FB

JTWC12/21Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121759Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GENERALIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 121316Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 15-20
KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF
THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
EASTWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

這個戲通應該會先跟92W整合為一個系統...