(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 180002Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL AID FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS EXPRESS THAT 96W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, SKIRTING GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.