(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.3N 158.8E, APPROXIMATELY 1006 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS COMPLETED EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST. A 210300Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A 202220Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME 20 KNOT WINDS
PRESENT TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
