(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.5N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 217 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 98W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PERSISTENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL INDICATE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPACT SYSTEM WITHIN 48-72 HOURS WITH A NORTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
