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1813 珊珊 遠洋北上 掠過日本東部近岸

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-2 17:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 06Z升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 18N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.

18080215.png

20180802.0830.himawari-8.ircolor.94W.INVEST.20kts.1001mb.18.6N.152E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-2 15:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
wp942018.20180802065022.gif

rbtop-animated.gif

94W_gefs_latest.png
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簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-2 12:45 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-8-2 09:11
JTWC 00Z評級提升至Medium,逐漸增強。

請問一下這擾動有機會靠近臺灣嗎?

點評

字數未滿20字請善用點評功能唷,手機板的可用chrome瀏覽器跳電腦版就能點評囉  發表於 2018-8-2 15:50
往日本東部  發表於 2018-8-2 13:08
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-8-2 09:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 00Z評級提升至Medium,逐漸增強。
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 156.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY
748 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CLOUD LINES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. THERE IS OVERALL BROAD
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
012016Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS DIFFER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SOME MODELS, GFS,
DEPICT 93W MERGING WITH 94W BEFORE HEADING ON A WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK. WHILE OTHER MODELS, SPECIFICALLY NAVGEM HAS JUST
94W DEVELOPING AND HEADING ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20180802.0030.himawari-8.vis.94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.19.3N.154.2E.100pc.jpg

點評

副高整個中緯度地區都是禮讓的,靠近台灣的機率都非常非常低,大氣配置沒有改變,太平洋的任何系統都不會靠近台灣  發表於 2018-8-2 14:30
但94w發展比較好,可能要反過來了  發表於 2018-8-2 13:16
請問一下這擾動有機會靠近臺灣嗎?  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-8-2 12:45
模式還是比較看好94w渦度被93w吸掉  發表於 2018-8-2 12:36
直接說再見  發表於 2018-8-2 09:28
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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-1 14:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.2N 156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
TURNING PARTIALLY COVERED BY DEEPENING CONVECTION. WARM (28-29C)
SSTS, LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CREATE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL MERGE WITH 93W IN THE MID-LATE TAU RANGE AS
THE COMBINED SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

94W_gefs_latest.png

20180801.0600.himawari-8.ircolor.94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.18.1N.154.4E.100pc.jpg
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