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霧峰追風者|2018-8-13 15:20
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JTWC 05Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.0N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 130142Z
METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS ELONGATED TURNING
SURROUNDING A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW. A 130104Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS)
AND A POINT SOURCE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AT 28-29C. CURRENTLY, GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH INDICATING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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