開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

1820 西馬隆 緊追蘇力 中心二次登陸日本 快速轉化

簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-8-15 09:13 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1820 ( 23 W )
名稱:西馬隆 ( Cimaron )
1820HIMA-808220630.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 08 15 09
升格熱低日期:2018 08 16 12
命名日期  :2018 08 18 21
停編日期  :2018 08 24 14
登陸地點  :日本 德島縣
          兵庫縣 姬路市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):43 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :45 m/s ( 85 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):110 kts ( Cat.3 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:948 百帕
七級風半徑  :200 公里
十級風半徑  : 80 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
91W.INVEST.15kts-998mb-12.5N-168.0E

20180814.2310.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.998mb.12.5N.168E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 992 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-8-15 17:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7N 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1315 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 142243Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING
CRITERIA LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair-B.jpg
vis_lalo-animated-91W-1.gif



回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-15 22:50 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
它也有爆對流的趨勢
201808152340-00.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-16 00:36 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
對流持續爆發,可能等等又GW但是可能又是遠洋無害颱
91W_geps_latest.png
vis0-lalo.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2276 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-16 09:13 | 顯示全部樓層
19Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 167.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY
750 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151506Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

LATEST.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-16 23:42 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA:TD
18081621.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2381 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2018-8-17 15:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發佈TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 170530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 158.9E TO 14.7N 152.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 162.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY
795NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 170240Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST VALUES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29C. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180530Z.//
NNNN
wp9118.gif
91W_170530sair.jpg


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 992 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-8-18 06:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC編號"23W",初報上望C3,JTWC分析已到了T2.5
TPPN10 PGTW 172125

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (E OF GUAM)

B. 17/2100Z

C. 13.44N

D. 154.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/1649Z  13.15N  155.78E  SSMI
   17/2006Z  13.63N  155.33E  SSMS

wp232018.18081712.gif

vis_lalo-animated--23W-1.gif


回復

使用道具 舉報

1234下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表