簽到天數: 2095 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2018-8-22 08:22
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JTWC 20Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.0N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI. A RECENT
ASCAT METOP-A PASS DEPICTS A CLOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AS FULLY EXPOSED WITH
SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KT), BUT
VERY LITTLE DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-
30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
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