t02436

JTWC升格25W，暫時上望105節。

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA


JMA 00Z升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.

t02436

20Z提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 161.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY
900 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 261848Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
261102Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 15-20 KTS AROUND THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS),
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
BUT VARY ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.4N 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING
DEVOID OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242256Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASS SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING WITH WEAK WINDS (15 KTS) AND A
250233Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THERE IS SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND BROAD TURNING. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT VARY ON
THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dog327

至於往哪走現在下定論還太早