1822 山竹源自中太低緯西行環流廣強度猛強襲呂宋珠三角

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-9-7 08:05

TCFA

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-9-7 07:48

差不多快GW了

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-9-6 23:11

對流持續爆發中，大概明天有機會GW

t02436 · 2018-9-6 21:45

評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 173.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. A 060932Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEPENING PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

王子又 · 2018-9-6 18:15

本帖最後由王子又於 2018-9-6 18:54 編輯

90w將來發展的強度路徑與太平洋高壓的互動，會是決定99W走向的關鍵。 esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.99W.2018.168.png

genprob.aeperts.2018090600.wptg.000_120.png

track.gfso.2018090600.tc_wpac_ll.single.png

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-9-6 14:11

對流爆發中

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-9-6 12:48

871也太浮誇了吧？~

t02436 · 2018-9-6 07:39

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 174E,
APPROXIMATELY 388 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 051824Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
HIGHLIGHTS THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE FORMATIVE BAND FEEDING INTO
THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VWS THAT IS EASILY
OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD
VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28 - 30 C). MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.