霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-9-21 05:22
IMD 命名"DAYE"，也是北印首個氣旋風暴，即將登陸。

JTWC 18Z發"FW"，短暫的2次報文。

IMD 命名"DAYE"，也是孟加拉灣首個氣旋風暴，即將登陸。
rsmc.pdf (816.88 KB, 下載次數: 1)

2018-9-21 05:22 上傳

點擊文件名下載附件

12Z升格04B，即將登陸。

18Z評級Low

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1N
      92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
BASED ON THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND  AN
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 171631Z, SHOW WEAK FLARING
CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT 5-15KTS.
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD FLOW IS HELPING TO ENABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27-29C.
MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF BURMA IN 48-72
HOURS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE POSITIONING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

駛流場數據支持.可是區域水溫條件有待觀察.
需等待山竹過去殘留水氣有無加乘效果 或 區域水溫上升.
長大機率50~60%.

2018.09.17 南邊冷水上來太快 GG.