t02436

CMA升格TD16

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 170000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 16 INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC
00HR 9.3N 113.5E 1006HPA 14M/S
MOVE WNW 13KM/H
P+12HR 9.8N 112.0E 1005HPA 16M/S
P+24HR 10.3N 110.2E 1003HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 10.3N 109.4E 1005HPA 16M/S
P+48HR 9.9N 108.0E 1007HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

JMA發布Warning

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 10.8N 111.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

周子堯@FB

JMA亦於18Z升格TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 113E WNW SLOWLY.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 22Z發布TCFA。

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 112.8E TO 10.2N 106.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 112.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A 161938Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 91W IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W
WILL TRACK WEST TOWARDS VIETNAM AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

13Z評級提升到Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY
351 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 160919Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AND
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC) WITH TWO POSSIBLE
SPINNERS. FORMATIVE BUT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
BEGINNING TO FEED INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD, ELONGATED WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK IN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 19Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 151344Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHT SURFACE WRAPPING WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION. 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WEST, BUT DISAGREE ON WHETHER IT WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.