老農民版夜神月

巔峰已過,JTWC,MFR先後在18Z,00Z判定開始減弱,並認為此系統將開始逐漸減弱直至消亡

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016     
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 20.6S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 21.8S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 22.9S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 23.8S 69.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 24.2S 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.2S 74.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 24.9S 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

FKIO20 FMEE 100008
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190210/0008Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GELENA
ADVISORY NR: 2019/16
OBS PSN: 10/0000Z S2015 E06315
CB: WI 200
NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: ESE 16KT
C: 946HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 10/0600Z S2046 E06411
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 10/1200Z S2119 E06507
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 10/1800Z S2155 E06603
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 11/0000Z S2231 E06657
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190210/0600Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 100026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

jrchang5

09/12Z強度達到巔峰，近中心最大風速MFR判定110kts，JTWC則判定120kts。目前正逐漸南下減弱中。

WTIO31 FMEE 091317
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
36H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE
COMBLANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 60.4E

jrchang5

JTWC判定09/06Z升格為四級颶風，近中心最大風速達115kts。

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 58.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 58.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 19.2S 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 20.5S 63.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 21.8S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 22.9S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 24.1S 71.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 23.9S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 24.2S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS). TC 13S IS TAPPING INTO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SST
VALUES (29-30C) ARE FUELING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN
EXPECTED PEAK AT 130 KTS AT TAU 12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT AFTERWARDS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND
NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LEAVES TC 13S BEHIND.
AFTER TAU 72, ECMWF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, WHILE NAVGEM AND GFS
BRING THE TRACK SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; HOWEVER, ALL
MODELS AGREE ON A DUE EASTWARD TRACK AND SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS ONLY
150 NM. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MESOSCALE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN THE NEAR TERM BUT STILL SHOWS
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COAMPS-NAVGEM AND
HWRF MAINTAIN SYSTEM INTENSITY ABOVE 65 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VWS WILL REMAIN HIGH, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE
LIMITED BY UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TRACKING INTO DRIER AIR. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MFR亦認定此強烈熱帶氣旋於09/06Z近中心最大風速達105kts。

ZCZC 622
WTIO30 FMEE 090641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CYCLONE GELENA HEADING TOWARDS RODRIGUES !
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF GELENA HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH A WARMING EYE AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED AT 105 KT BASED ON LATEST DVORAK ANALYSIS.
SHORTLY BEFORE 06 UTC, THE RAW DT NUMBERS ARE NOW AT 6.5.
GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND GELENA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RACE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS
TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE STILL STEERING THE
CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE TRACK AND
PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY THERE IS A
LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK LIES MORE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT
THE INITIAL STAGE AND THEN IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION OF GELENA ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL
EFFECTS OF OF AN INCREASE OF THE SHEAR AT PRESENT TIME. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TREND, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY BEFORE A
WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD START LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ON THIS TRACK, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER
RODRIGUES ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS A VERY
SERIOUS SITUATION AND THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS AND
PRODUCTS FROM MMS. DYNAMICAL FETCH SHOULD TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS SEA LEVEL RISING THAT COULD REACH 2 METERS
OVER SOME EXPOSED AREAS.=
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

風眼如JTWC預期置換完成,整體型態相較昨日置換前更為優異,JTWC0906定強提升至C4的可能性不低,雲圖上亦十分美麗,但同時強度也將達顛峰

jrchang5

MFR判定09/00Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達100kts。

ZCZC 486
WTIO30 FMEE 090048 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5-, CI=6.0.
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

雖然型態較昨晚時相比,已稍見轉差,但JTWC21Z一報仍預測未來12小時內有上望130KT的機會

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 56.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 56.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.4S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS

1200Z時期





1800Z時期

由此圖可見2245Z時風眼已明顯重新開啟,確實有可能在這最後的12小時內往上衝擊巔峰

jrchang5

JTWC判定08/06Z升格為三級颶風，近中心最大風速達100kts。

13S GELENA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 08, 2019:

Location: 15.2°S 54.7°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 961 mb

WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 54.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 54.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.5S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 18.2S 58.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 19.7S 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 21.1S 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 23.4S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 24.7S 71.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 25.0S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED, 20 NM WIDE, EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TC 13S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 13S IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE
STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 96.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ALLOW TC 13S TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 140
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 13S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW TC 13S
TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MFR則判定06Z強度評級仍維持熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速升至75kts。

ZCZC 399
WTIO30 FMEE 080742 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-
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霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z強度升"一級颶風"，巔峰上望135kts。

WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 14.1S 54.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 15.9S 56.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 18.0S 58.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 21.5S 65.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 24.1S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 27.0S 75.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN A QUASI-STATIONARY MODE AND
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH AN EVOLVING PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARM CENTRAL PIXELS OVER THE
EVOLVING EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 062134Z ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
TRACK FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z, AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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