Bulletin du 05 février à 10H34 locales Réunion:
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 09-20182019.
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 45 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 65 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1002 hPa.
Position le 05 février à 10 heures locales Réunion: 12.4 Sud / 55.1 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 945 km au secteur: NORD
Distance de Mayotte: 1080 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: OUEST-SUD-OUEST, à 15 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le Bulletin d'Activité Cyclonique (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.
JTWC：
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 473
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050105Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 57.8E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040558Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING THOUGH STILL WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL
POCKET OF CENTRALLY LOCATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN
THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN FORMATION TIMING
BETWEEN 060000Z (ECMWF) AND 080600Z (GFS) AND THE UKMO SHOWING NO
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
