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天篷大元帥|2019-7-14 22:51
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聯合颱風警報中心:低
此時日本氣象廳早已升格為熱低。ABPW10 PGTW 141400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141400Z-150600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.9N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 548 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 140940Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND A 141210Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A NORTHWEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) AS
LOW //
NNNN 聯合颱風警報中心(上為報文原文,下為機器翻譯(僅供參考))
ABPW10 PGTW 141400
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI //
SUBJ /重要熱帶天氣對西
太平洋海洋的重建/ 141400Z-150600ZJUL2019 //
RMKS /
1. 西北太平洋地區(180至馬六甲半島) :
A。熱帶氣旋摘要:無。
B.熱帶擾動概要:
(1)對流區域(投資98W)
持續14.9N 135.4E 附近,大約548海里西部的GUAM。最佳動畫
多光譜圖像和一個140940Z SSMIS 91GHZ圖像和141210Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS描繪了廣闊的低級循環(LLC)與
噴焰燃燒對流。上分析顯示低(5-15 KNOT)
垂直風切削,具有良好的POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT。溫暖的
海面溫度(29-30 CELSIUS)支持未來發展。
全球模型是一般協議,指示在接下來的
48-72小時內進行西北賽道的重複增強。最大
持續表面風速估計為15至20節。最低
海平面壓力估計接近1002 MB。在
接下來的24
小時內發展一個重要的熱帶氣旋的潛力很低。
(2)沒有其他可疑區域。
2.南太平洋地區(南美洲西海岸至東部135):
A。熱帶氣旋摘要:無。
B.熱帶乾擾概要:無。
3.補償的理由:第1.B部分增加的區域(1)AS
LOW //
NNNN
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