老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格07W首報,暫時不看好07W的強度發展能上TS,預測巔峰強度30KT封頂

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZJUL2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 26.3N 137.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 137.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 27.9N 137.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 30.1N 137.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 32.0N 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 33.7N 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 35.8N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 37.3N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 137.6E.
25JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240800).//
NNNN

另外,JTWC稍早略微上調了07W於早上25/00Z時的定強,由原本報中的25KT上修為30KT

07W INVEST 190725 0000 26.2N 137.5E WPAC 30 1000

t02436

JTWC升格07W，初報不看好達到TS強度

ben811018

結構不太好~還需要點時間整理
中太副高導引下，
路徑稍稍西修，影響範圍擴大~

老農民版夜神月

24/0800Z,JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 136.4E TO 29.1N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.8N 135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY
650 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY
DISPLAYED TRAITS OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED DEFINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS A
WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD MAINLAND
JAPAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250800Z.//
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老農民版夜神月

霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-7-24 15:05
看91W路徑追蹤，應該只是復編，要與先前91W合併處理@@?

WP, 91, 2019072300, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1343E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 91, 2019072306, , BEST, 0, 231N, 1348E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 91, 2019072312, , BEST, 0, 234N, 1354E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 91, 2019072318, , BEST, 0, 237N, 1359E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 70, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 91, 2019072400, , BEST, 0, 241N, 1364E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 75, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 91, 2019072406, , BEST, 0, 247N, 1368E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 75, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

這是JTWC對於這個91W的全部報文,基本上可以確定是個全新的系統
如果是舊系統復編,JTWC在報文中不可能將之前的紀錄全部刪除,尤其前一個91W還曾經發過TCFA

這算是美國的一個編擾上的失誤
雖然對於他們來說反正只是一個臨時編號
但卻會造成較常關注擾動系統的人
有不少都第一時間誤會成是南海的91W多日後重生了
其實簡單想想就知道這根本是不太可能的
當初的91
不管是對流還是LLCC早就被丹娜絲扯到遙遠的北方去萬劫不復了
怎麼可能幾天後同個緯度還能夠復活

霧峰追風者

看91W路徑追蹤，應該只是復編，要與先前91W合併處理@@?

老農民版夜神月

JTWC24/0200Z評級Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 240200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/240200Z-240600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.8N 135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 136.2E APPROXIMATELY 705 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 27-28C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
NNNN

jrchang5

CWB亦判定升格為熱帶性低氣壓，並編號TD11。

第 11 號熱帶性低氣壓

》現況
2019年07月24日08時
      中心位置　北緯 23.00 度　東經 137.00 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1005 百帕
      近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     北北東 時速 17 公里
     預測 07月24日20時
     中心在 北緯 24.80 度 東經 137.50 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     北北東 時速 18 公里
     預測 07月25日08時
     中心在 北緯 26.70 度 東經 138.00 度
     中心氣壓   998 百帕
     近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢