老農民版夜神月

結構仍然慘澹,與一個月前的木恩及半個月前的丹娜絲相同,系統季風槽性太過明顯,特徵便是中心狹長甚至多中心存在,系統難以整合,發展的速度會相較數值模式預估的緩慢,強度也容易因此不如預期,這點也是EC做得比GFS好太多的其中一個地方,雖然EC有時對熱帶系統形成的反應也略嫌遲鈍,但至少不會像GFS幾天前的預報那樣,92W作為一個季風低壓,居然在南海一有了雛型後便快速的整合完畢後快速的增強,這明顯是相較不合理的一個預測

霧峰追風者

JMA 強度升熱帶低壓。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 116.6E TO 20.0N 113.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 116.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 116.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY
381 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291314Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD, WEAK LLCC WITH A LARGE REGION OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26
TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSETTING MARGINAL (15 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 92W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

老農民版夜神月

JTWC29/0600Z報中直接評級Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLC. A 290135Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. A 282239Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

報文中有提到的290135Z,ASCAT-C風場

JMA: LPA