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TD21(95W) Low 多中心混戰 緩慢整合

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ericlin6925|2019-9-14 09:27 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
jrchang5 發表於 2019-9-14 06:46
CWB亦判定13/18Z降為低氣壓。



如果它和東北邊那個擾動能夠撤底脫離,等到東北邊擾動北上遠離後,它單獨發展還是有戲的,只是這樣變動可能變成對南部或港澳威脅較大,如果藤原效應不明顯,它可能會落在台灣東南部海面向西或西北西移動,路徑類似1991的奈特,如果藤原明顯,則它會落到南海再看那時西風槽打擊副高程度而定,如果打擊明顯,則有可能會朝東北方前進,對南部就有威脅,如果不明顯,它就會朝廣東甚至海南島前進。個人覺得應該藤原效應應該不會很明顯(參考今年的利奇馬跟柯羅莎),所以第一類情況可能性大很多。

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個人觀點~這假設順利發展下去~風場應該不算小?  發表於 2019-9-14 11:53
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-9-15 14:31 | 顯示全部樓層
評級降低至Low,逐漸消散。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY
346 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141203Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMEENT THAT
95W WILL BE NEAR STATIONARY AND REMAIN VERY BROAD WITHOUT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH.
abpwsair.jpg
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