1911 白鹿兩年來登台首颱快速通過南部後登福建

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-8-14 15:50

  輕度颱風
編號：1911 ( 12 W )
名稱：白鹿 ( Bailu )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2019 年 08 月 14 日 15 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 08 月 20 日 08 時
CWB升格日期: 2019 年 08 月 20 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 08 月 21 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 26 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：台灣屏東縣滿州鄉
　　　　　　　中國福建省東山縣
颱風警報總計：海上警報 19 報;陸上警報 14 報

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：30 m/s ( 11 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：25 m/s ( 50 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：30 m/s ( STS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：55 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：975 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　：050 公里

  過去路徑圖

  擾動編號資料
97W INVEST 190814 0600 9.4N 149.7E WPAC 15 0

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者 · 2019-8-14 19:45

GFS 預測將直襲台灣北部。

ericlin6925 · 2019-8-14 21:38

霧峰追風者發表於 2019-8-14 19:45
GFS 預測將直襲台灣北部。

不知為何這兩三年各大機構預測數值很喜歡把擾動算來北部，可能跟這兩年太平洋高壓偏弱有關吧。不過人算(或機器算)不如天算，最後幾乎都轉向不來，其實這兩年大氣配置，颱風是不易侵襲南部和港澳的，但沒想到港澳去年還是難逃山竹毒手，今年就看南部能否逃過颱風侵襲了。

霧峰追風者 · 2019-8-19 09:27

GFS 預測侵襲沖繩，登陸日本九州。

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-8-19 14:33

JTWC19/06Z報中開始給予97W評級

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 573 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED WESTWARD. A 190016Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. A 190058Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY
BROAD AND VERY WEAK LLC. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH BROAD, DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VWS AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者 · 2019-8-20 10:50

評級提升Medium。

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK, RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED, ALBEIT, CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A 191240Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS VALIDATES
THE WEAK LLC WITH 10-15KT WIND BARBS. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS GREATLY
OFFSET BY HIGH (25KTS+) VWS. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISSONANCE WITH NAVGEM AND
UKMET OFFERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN 48HRS AND TRACKING TOWARD
TAIWAN, WHEREAS, ECMWF AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH MINIMAL AND
SHORT-LIVED WARNING CRITERIA INTENSITY BEYOND 72HRS ON A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. IN VIEW OF THE CLEAR LLC AND POSSIBLE TD INTENSIFICATION IN
48HRS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.