WTPN22 PGTW 311930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
311900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 131.4E TO 15.8N 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 332
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AMPLE FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO
FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST ALONG THE PHILIPPINE COAST, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND UKMO DELAY THE ONSET OF 25 KNOT WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
48 HOUR MARK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E.//
NNNN
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI SHOWS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 310808Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE LLC TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
IN. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI AND A 310045Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC
SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED
BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
