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13E.Kiko 持續西行

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2019-9-10 14:48 | 顯示全部樓層
  四級颶風  
編號:13 E
名稱:Kiko

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 09 10 13
命名日期  :2019 09 13 05
撤編日期  :2019 09 26 19
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速:115  kt
海平面最低氣壓:950 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
90E INVEST 190910 0600 10.8N 102.4W EPAC 20 1009
20190910.0610.goes-17.ir.90E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.10.8N.102.4W.100pc.jpg

  NHC:60%  

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d0909.png two_pac_2d10909.png
two_pac_5d10909.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作


-巔峰曾達C4 發展超乎預期

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-9-20 10:12 | 顯示全部樓層
拋物線的走法,預期進入中太前還會再次重返C1
437
WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds.  Since then,
convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
tropical storm.  ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.

Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
for weakening.

Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

ep132019.20190919220701.gif

205154_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES01502019263qrb5hl.jpg

13e.gif
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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-15 23:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-16 00:48 編輯

15/15ZNHC定強115節,13E.Kiko正式成為2019年中東太和北大颶風季中第5個MH(C3以上),第4個C4以上的颶風
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151454
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye
and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly
symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to
some easterly shear.  The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which
matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates.

The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is
a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions
don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast
to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up
some cooler waters and help weaken the convection.  A steadier
weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The
new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than
the model consensus.  It isn't out of the realm of possibility that
Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to
maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to
reduce the forecast too much for now.

Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the
next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track.  A
weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the
models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening
of the ridge at long range.  There's been a subtle model trend
toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would
favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant
rightward turn.  The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight
on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally
favor the weak ridge scenario.  No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is
low due to the large model spread at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

145355_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png goes17_ir_13E_201909151445.jpg
goes17_vis-swir_13E_201909151315.jpg goes17_ir-dvorak_13E_201909151225.jpg
GOES14502019258BPYjev.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-9-15 13:06 | 顯示全部樓層
底層核心迷你,03Z報直接爆發增強到100節。
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

021829_5day_cone_with_line.png

20190915.0221.f17.91pct91h91v.13E.KIKO.95kts.970mb.17N.119.7W.095pc.jpg

GOES04502019258TixK2H.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-13 05:43 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC12/21Z判定升格為TS,命名Kiko.預測接下來數日將逐漸西行增強,並於+72小時前後強度達到巔峰75KT
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus.  The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
204608_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20190912.2050.goes-17.ir.13E.KIKO.35kts.1004mb.15.9N.111.7W.100pc.jpg
20190912.2050.goes-17.irbd.13E.KIKO.35kts.1004mb.15.9N.111.7W.100pc.jpg 20190912.2050.goes-17.ircolor.13E.KIKO.35kts.1004mb.15.9N.111.7W.100pc.jpg
wv0912.gif GOES21102019255VBKfuO.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-12 23:15 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC12/15Z升格90E為TD.13-E,首報預測巔峰上看75節
582
WTPZ43 KNHC 121452
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation
associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest
the system has likely become better organized since the
scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding
features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has
developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from
TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest
around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next
couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest
movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into
the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next
week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a
weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this
time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move
more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the
model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a
favorable environment for intensification over the next several
days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model
guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a
tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend.
There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the
cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid
intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For
now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop,
the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model
consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week
as the system moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
145749_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png GOES145020192550MjnsH.jpg
20190912.1430.goes-17.ir.13E.THIRTEEN.30kts.1006mb.15.7N.110.6W.100pc.jpg 20190912.1308.f18.composite.13E.THIRTEEN.30kts.1006mb.15.7N.110.6W.070pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-12 03:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-12 03:35 編輯

NHC展望已再提升至90%/90%,並預計此系統可能於24小時內升格
1. A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to become better defined. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next 24 hours as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d10911.png two_pac_5d10911.png
20190911.1408.f17.composite.90E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.13.8N.106.8W.080pc.jpg GOES192020192545q6Exo.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-11 04:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-11 04:31 編輯

NHC展望提升至High,70%/90%
1. A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  This
disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d10910.png two_pac_5d10910.png
GOES200020192537feS2V.jpg

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